Details

Исследование посвящено анализу динамики, структуры и макроэкономических детерминант внешнего долга Китая, с целью выработки аналитических выводов и рекомендаций в условиях углубляющейся интеграции страны в глобальную финансовую систему. Основные задачи работы заключаются в следующем: 1. Изучить теоретические основы внешнего долга и стратегий его управления. 2. Проанализировать эволюцию, структуру и уязвимости внешнего долга Китая за последние два десятилетия. 3. Построить и оценить эконометрические модели ( ARDL, ECM , VAR ) для выявления краткосрочных и долгосрочных взаимосвязей между внешним долгом и ключевыми макроэкономическими показателями. 4. Оценить влияние внешних шоков и внутренних экономических факторов на устойчивость долга и предложить соответствующие меры политики. С помощью статистического пакета Eviews была применена модель ARDL для определения устойчивых долгосрочных связей между внешним долгом и такими переменными, как ВВП, валютный курс, дефицит бюджета и валютные резервы. ECM - модель использовалась для анализа краткосрочной динамики, а модель VAR — для проведения импульсного отклика и анализа дисперсии прогнозных ошибок. Результаты моделирования подтверждают наличие долгосрочного равновесия между внешним долгом и макроэкономическими индикаторами, особенно выражено влияние валютного курса и бюджетного баланса. VAR - анализ показывает, что шоки валютного курса и изменения резервов оказывают существенное и продолжительное влияние на долговую динамику. Для устойчивого управления долгом необходима скоординированная политика, включающая бюджетную дисциплину, гибкость валютного курса и контроль за трансграничными потоками капитала. Работа делает вклад в теоретическое и прикладное изучение внешнего долга развивающихся стран и предоставляет ценные рекомендации для укрепления финансовой устойчивости Китая в условиях глобальной экономической нестабильности.

This study investigates the dynamics, structure, and macroeconomic determinants of China’s external debt, with the goal of providing analytical insights and policy guidance amid the country’s deepening integration into the global financial system. This research pursues the following objectives: 1.​To review theoretical foundations of external debt and its management. 2.​To analyze the evolution, structure, and vulnerabilities of China’s external debt over the past two decades. 3.​To construct and estimate econometric models (ARDL, ECM, VAR) for identifying short- and long-run relationships between external debt and key macroeconomic variables. 4.​To evaluate the impact of external shocks and domestic fundamentals on debt sustainability and offer corresponding policy recommendations. Using the Eviews statistical package, an ARDL model was used to determine the stable long-term relationships between external debt and variables such as GDP, exchange rate, budget deficit, and foreign exchange reserves. The ECM model was used to analyze short-term dynamics, and the VAR model was used to conduct impulse response and forecast error variance analysis. The modeling results confirm the existence of a long-term equilibrium between external debt and macroeconomic indicators, with the exchange rate and budget balance having a particularly pronounced effect. The VAR analysis shows that exchange rate shocks and changes in reserves have a significant and lasting impact on debt dynamics. Sustainable debt management requires a coordinated policy, including fiscal discipline, exchange rate flexibility, and controls on cross-border capital flows. The paper contributes to the theoretical and applied study of developing countries external debt and provides valuable recommendations for strengthening Chinas financial resilience in the face of global economic instability.

• ВЫПУСКНАЯ КВАЛИФИКАЦИОННАЯ РАБОТА МАГИСТЕРСКАЯ ДИССЕРТАЦИЯ
  • УПРАВЛЕНИЕ ВНЕШНИМ ДОЛГОМ КИТАЯ
    • TASK
    • for graduation qualification work
    • Variable symbol and definition;Multiple linear regression results;Descriptive statistical;Results of multicollinearity test;ARCH test results;Glejser test results;White test results
• INTRUDUCTION
• 1.THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS OF EXTERNAL DEBT MANAGEMENT
  • 1.1. The Nature and Structure of External Debt
  • 1.2. Factors Influencing External Debt
    • 1.2.1. Macroeconomic Fundamentals
    • 1.2.2. Global Financial Conditions
    • 1.2.3. Institutional and Policy-Related Factors
  • 1.3. Theoretical Approaches to External Debt Management
• 2. ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMICS AND STRUCTURE OF CHINA’S EXTERNAL DEBT
  • 2.1. Dynamics of China’s External Debt: Trends and Characteristics
  • 2.2. Structure of China’s External Debt
    • 2.2.1. Classification by Borrowing Sector
    • 2.2.2. Maturity Structure
    • 2.2.3. Currency Composition
    • 2.2.4. Creditor Composition
    • 2.2.5. Instrument Type and Financial Channels
    • 2.2.6. Institutional and Regulatory Structure
  • 2.3. Factors Determining the Dynamics and Structure of China’s External Debt
    • 2.3.1. Macroeconomic Fundamentals
    • 2.3.2. Capital Account Openness and Financial Liberalization
    • 2.3.3. Institutional and Policy Environment
    • 2.3.4. Corporate Behavior and Financial Strategy
    • 2.3.5. Global Financial Conditions and Investor Sentiment
    • 2.3.6. Domestic Regulatory Framework
• 3. LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVES
  • 3.1. Overview of External Debt Research: Domestic and International Perspectives
  • 3.2. Theoretical Perspectives and Econometric Approaches
    • 3.2.1. Theoretical Perspectives on External Debt
    • 3.2.2. Econometric Approaches in External Debt Research
    • 3.2.3. Summary
  • 3.3. Research Gap and Positioning of This Study
    • 3.3.1. Limited focus on debt structure evolution in China
    • 3.3.2. Fragmented empirical methodologies
    • 3.3.3. Underrepresentation of global factors in China-specific models
    • 3.3.4. Data limitations and outdated coverage in prior work
• 4. RESEARCH DESIGN AND ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK
  • 4.1. Research Strategy and Analytical Logic
  • 4.2. Model Selection and Theoretical Justification
• 5.VARIABLE SELECTION AND DATA PROCESSING
  • 5.1. Theoretical Foundation
  • 5.2. Research Objectives and Chapter Structure
  • 5.3. Data Sources and Sample Description
  • 5.4. Variable symbol and definition
  • 5.5. Stationarity Test
• 6. ARDL MODEL AND ECM ANALYSIS
  • 6.1. Reasons and Theoretical Basis for the Selection of the ARDL Model
  • 6.2. ARDL Model Setting and Variable Classification
  • 6.3. Establishment and Verification of the ARDL Model
    • 6.3.1. Determination of Lag Order of ARDL Model
    • 6.3.2. Bounds Test
    • 6.3.3. Analysis of the Long-Term and Short-Term Relationship of the ARDL Model
    • 6.3.4. Stability Test
  • 6.4. Establishment and testing of ADRL model and ECM model after variable screening
    • 6.4.1. Determination of Lag Order of ARDL Model
    • 6.4.2. Boundary Inspection
    • 6.4.3. Analysis of the Long-Term and Short-Term Relationship of the ARDL Model
    • 6.4.4. ECM Model
    • 6.4.5. Stability Test
• 7.DYNAMIC ANALYSIS BASED ON THE VAR MODEL
  • 7.1. VAR Model Specification and Variable Selection
    • 7.1.1. Justification for Using a VAR Model
    • 7.1.2. Variable Selection and Economic Interpretation
    • 7.1.3. Cointegration Test Results
    • 7.1.4. Lag Order Selection Based on Information Criteria
    • 7.1.5. Stability Diagnostics of the VAR Model
  • 7.2. Analysis of VAR Model Results
    • 7.2.1. Granger Causality Interpretation via VAR System Coefficients
    • 7.2.2. Model Fit and Statistical Diagnostics
    • 7.2.3. Summary of Granger Causality and Policy Implications
  • 7.3. Impulse Response Function Analysis
    • 7.3.1. Theoretical Framework and Methodological Approach
    • 7.3.2. Response to External Debt Shocks
    • 7.3.3. Response to Exchange Rate Shocks
    • 7.3.4 Response to Foreign Exchange Reserve Shocks
    • 7.3.5. Summary and Policy Implications
  • 7.4. Forecast Error Variance Decomposition Analysis
    • 7.4.1. Methodological Foundation
    • 7.4.2. Interpretation of Results
    • 7.4.3. Summary of Findings and Policy Implications
  • 7.5. Summary and Policy Conclusions
    • 7.5.1. Summary of Main Findings
    • 7.5.2. Policy Implications and Recommendations
    • 7.5.3. Final Remarks
• 8. CONCLUSION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
  • 8.1. General Summary of the Study
  • 8.2. Policy Recommendations
    • 8.2.1. Adopt a Rules-Based, Forward-Looking Debt Strategy
    • 8.2.2. Align Debt with National Development Priorities
    • 8.2.3. Strengthen Currency Risk Management Frameworks
    • 8.2.4. Enhance Fiscal Coordination and Accountability
    • 8.2.5. Leverage Foreign Exchange Reserves More Strategically
    • 8.2.6. Strengthen Institutional Capacity and Analytical Infrastructure
    • 8.2.7 Promote International Engagement and Transparency
  • 8.3. Final Reflections and Directions for Future Research
• CONCLUSION
• LIST OF REFERENCES