Детальная информация

Эта магистерская работа посвящена влиянию изменений процентных ставок на международную инвестиционную деятельность китайских коммерческих банков. В ней указывается, что в контексте глобальной экономической интеграции процентные ставки являются основным фактором, влияющим на международные потоки капитала. Ее рыночно - ори ентированные реформы воздействуют на международные инвестиционные решения коммерческих банков через такие механизмы, как затраты на финансирование, инвестиционные доходы и привязка к обменному курсу. Например, рост процентных ставок приводит к росту затрат на финансирование заемных средств для подавления инвестиций, а падение снижает капитальные затраты для стимулирования инвестиций. В то же время разница в процентных ставках стимулирует трансграничные потоки капитала и влияет на обменные курсы. Благодаря п остроению модели ADL и модели ARIMA в сочетании с эмпирическим анализом данных с 2005 по 2023 год было обнаружено, что внутренняя текущая процентная ставка положительно коррелирует с зарубежными инвестициями, 6 - месячная ставка LIBOR отрицательно коррелируе т с инвестициями, а масштаб инвестиций имеет запаздывающий эффект. Азиатский регион стал центром инвестиций из - за своего потенциала экономического роста, географических и культурных преимуществ и поддержки политики «Один пояс, один путь», но влияние фактор ов процентной ставки относительно ограничено. Исследование рекомендует банкам улучшить свою систему идентификации риска процентной ставки, использовать производные инструменты для хеджирования рисков и оптимизировать свои портфели активов, содействовать маркетизации процентных ставок на уровне политики, усилить интернационализацию юаня и азиатское региональное финансовое сотрудничество и создать механизмы раннего предупреждения о риске трансграничного движения капитала.

This masters thesis focuses on the impact of interest rate changes on the international investment activities of Chinese commercial banks. It points out that in the context of global economic integration, interest rates are the core factor affecting international capital flows. Its market-oriented reforms act on commercial banks international investment decisions through mechanisms such as financing costs, investment returns, and exchange rate linkage. For example, rising interest rates push up debt financing costs to suppress investment, while falling reduces capital costs to stimulate investment. At the same time, interest rate differences drive cross-border capital flows and affect exchange rates. Through the construction of the ADL model and the ARIMA model, combined with the empirical analysis of data from 2005 to 2023, it is found that the domestic current interest rate is positively correlated with overseas investment, the 6-month LIBOR is negatively correlated with investment, and the scale of investment has a lagging effect. The Asian region has become the focus of investment due to its economic growth potential, geographical and cultural advantages, and the support of the “Belt and Road” policy, but the influence of interest rate factors is relatively limited. The research recommends that banks improve their interest rate risk identification system, use derivatives to hedge risks and optimize their asset portfolios, promote interest rate marketization at the policy level, strengthen RMB internationalization and Asian regional financial cooperation, and establish cross-border capital flow risk early warning mechanisms.

• ВЫПУСКНАЯ КВАЛИФИКАЦИОННАЯ РАБОТА МАГИСТЕРСКАЯ ДИССЕРТАЦИЯ
  • ВЛИЯHИЕ ПРОЦЕНТНЫХ СТАВОК НА МЕЖДУНАРОДНУЮ
  • ИНВЕСТИЦИОННУЮ ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТЬ КОММЕРЧЕСКИХ БАНКОВ КИТАЯ
• introduction
• 1. RESEARCH BACKGROUND
• 1.1. The purpose of the study
• 1.2. Research significance
  • 1.2.1. Theoretical Significance
  • 1.2.2. Practical Significance
  • 1.2.3. Policy Implications
• 1.3. Research methods
• 1.4. Data sources
• 2. THEORETICAL PART
• 2.1. Interpretation of proper nouns
  • 2.1.1. Interest Rate
  • 2.1.2. China Commercial Bank
  • 2.1.3. International Investment Activities
  • 2.1.4. Capital Flow
  • 2.1.5. Risk Management
  • 2.1.6. Portfolio Optimization
• 2.2. Literature review
  • 2.2.1. In Terms of Interest Rate Policy and International Investment
  • 2.2.2. In international investment and risk management
  • 2.2.3. In terms of interest rate risk and bank loans
  • 2.2.4 In terms of international investment strategy and legal policies
  • 2.2.5. In terms of bank foreign investment and risk management
  • 2.2.6. China Commercial Overseas Investment and Internationalization Research Bank
  • 2.2.7. Mainly discuss the overseas investment, international development, regional layout and strategic choice of China commercial banks
  • 2.2.8. In terms of risks and management of foreign direct investment
  • 2.2.9. When studying the relationship between interest rate and investment
• 2.3. The impact mechanism of interest rates
  • 2.3.1. Direct impact of financing costs
  • 2.3.2. Indirect impact of financing costs
  • 2.3.3. Impact of investment decisions
  • 2.3.4. Impact of macroeconomic policies
• 3. INFLUENCE OF INTEREST RATE ON COMMERCIAL BANKS
• 3.1. The impact of interest rates on international investment activities of commercial banks
  • 3.1.1. Asset allocation decision
  • 3.1.2. Profitability
  • 3.1.3. Risk management strategy
  • 3.2. Policy recommendations
    • 3.2.1 Monetary policy
    • 3.2.2. Financial supervision
    • 3.2.3. Commercial banks themselves
  • 3.3. Future research direction
    • 3.3.1. In-depth study of the impact of interest rate liberalization on international investment of commercial banks
    • 3. 3. 2 Analyze the coping strategies of different types of commercial banks
    • 3.3.3. Explore international cooperation and exchanges
    • 3.3.4 Study the impact of interest rate risk on financial markets
• 4. INTEREST RATE AS A FACTOR IN INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES
• 4.1. Special environment of interest rate in China
  • 4.1.1 Degree of interest rate marketization
  • 4.1.2. Diversity of benchmark interest rates
  • 4.1.3. Policy orientation
• 4.2. Rationality of 2.LIBOR average
  • 4.2.1. Background introduction
  • 4.2.2. International reference value
  • 4.2.3. The need of risk management
  • 4.2.4. Improve market transparency
  • 4.2.5. The necessity of policy coordination
  • 4.3.1. Great potential for economic growth
  • 4.3.2. Geographical and cultural proximity
  • 4.3.3. Policy support and regional cooperation
  • 4.3.4. Diversity of interest rate environment
  • 4.3.5. Risk management advantages
  • 4.3.6. Application of technology and management experience
  • 4.3.7. Geopolitics and diplomatic relations
  • 4.3.8. Market Access and Regulatory Environment
• 5. DATA DESCRIPTION
  • 5.1. Description and source of main data
  • 5.2. Data display
• 6. DESCRIPTION AND SOURCE OF MAIN DATA
  • 6.1. International borrowing costs and liquidity
  • 6.2. Exchange rate risk and capital flow
  • 6.3. Arbitrage Opportunities and Arbitrage Transactions
  • 6.4. Risk management
  • 6.5. Market Expectations and Investment Decisions
  • 6.6. International portfolio management
• 7. DATA DISPLAY
• 7.1. Reasons for choosing the total overseas actual investment of the financial industry
• 7.2. Reasons for choosing deposit interest rate, one-year deposit interest rate and three-year deposit interest rate as basic analysis indicators
• 7.3. The significance of comprehensive analysis
• 7.4. Detailed description
  • 7.5. Analysis of Differences between 7.5LIBOR and Domestic Basic Interest Rate Indicators
  • 7.6. The significance of comprehensive analysis
  • 7.7. Trend analysis
  • 7.8. Analysis of influencing factors
• 8. THE INFLUENCE MECHANISM OF INTEREST RATE CHANGES
  • 8.1. The influence mechanism of interest rate changes on the international investment activities of China commercial banks
  • 8.2. The impact of interest rate changes on investment income
  • 8.3. The linkage effect of exchange rate fluctuation and interest rate change
  • 8.4. Transmission mechanism of interest rate changes on investment decisions
• 9. MODELING AND USING
  • 9.1. Construction of research model
• 10. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
  • 10.1. ADL model
  • 10.2. ARIMA model
  • 10.3. In the Asian region
  • 10.4. ARIMA Model
• CONCLUSIONS
• LIST OF REFERENCES
• APPENDIX A