Детальная информация

Данная работа посвящена изучению влияния динамики курса юаня на экспорт Китая через ценовую конкурентоспособность, прибыльность, стоимость импорта, риски и внешний спрос. В исследовании поставлены задачи: анализ теории (эластичность, условие Маршалла–Лернера, J-кривая, ППС), оценка текущей структуры экспорта Китая, выявление механизмов влияния курса, эконометрический анализ на месячных данных 2010–2024 гг. (ADF, коинтеграция Йохансена, VAR, импульсные отклики, декомпозициядисперсии) и разработка рекомендаций. Работа выполнена на базе СПбПУ с использованием данных таможни Китая, BIS, FRED, IMF в пакете EViews. Основные выводы: реальное укрепление юаня краткосрочно снижает экспорт с лагом (J-кривая); долгосрочной коинтеграции не обнаружено; курс объясняет >9 % колебаний экспорта; модернизация структуры экспорта смягчает эффект курса. Практические рекомендации даны для правительства (гибкость и стабильность курса, хеджирование, стимулирование модернизации и диверсификации рынков) и для компаний-экспортёров (управление валютными рисками, ценообразование, повышение добавленной стоимости, диверсификация, цифровизация).

This work is devoted to studying the influence of RMB exchange rate dynamics on Chinas exports through price competitiveness, profitability, import costs, risks, and external demand. The research sets the following tasks: analysis of theory (elasticity, the Marshall–Lerner condition, the J‑curve, PPP), assessment of the current structure of Chinas exports, identification of the mechanisms of exchange rate influence, econometric analysis on monthly data from 2010 to 2024 (ADF, Johansen cointegration, VAR, impulse responses, variance decomposition), and development of recommendations. The work was carried out at Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University using data from China Customs, BIS, FRED, and IMF in the EViews package. The main conclusions are: real appreciation of the RMB reduces exports in the short term with a lag (J‑curve); no long‑run cointegration is found; the exchange rate explains more than 9 % of export fluctuations; upgrading the export structure mitigates the exchange rate effect. Practical recommendations are given for the government (exchange rate flexibility and stability, hedging support, promotion of modernisation and market diversification) and for export enterprises (exchange rate risk management, pricing, increasing value added, diversification, digitalisation).

• ВЫПУСКНАЯ КВАЛИФИКАЦИОННАЯ РАБОТА МАГИСТЕРСКАЯ ДИССЕРТАЦИЯ
  • ИССЛЕДОВАНИЕ ВЛИЯНИЯ ОБМЕННОГО КУРСА ЮАНЯ НА ЭКСПОРТ КИТАЯ
    • for graduation qualification work
• ABSTRACT
• РЕФЕРАТ
• INTRODUCTION
• 1. THEORETICAL FOUNDATION OF THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE ON EXPORTS
  • 1.1. The Economic Nature of Exchange Rate and Its Role in External Economic Activities
    • 1.1.1. Concept of Exchange Rate, Nominal Exchange Rate and Real Exchange Rate
    • 1.1.2. Formation Factors and Adjustment Mechanism of Exchange Rate
    • 1.1.3 Influence of Exchange Rate on National Export Competitiveness
  • 1.2. Theoretical Perspectives on the Impact of Exchange Rate on Exports
    • 1.2.1. Demand Elasticity and the Marshall-Lerner Condition
    • 1.2.2. J-Curve Model and Lagged Effects
    • 1.2.3. Purchasing Power Parity Theory
    • 1.2.4. Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Flow Models
  • 1.3. Evolution of China's Exchange Rate Policy and Its Impact on Foreign Trade
    • 1.3.1. Historical Stages of China's Exchange Rate Regime
    • 1.3.2. Managed Floating Exchange Rate Policy and the Role of the People's Bank of China
    • 1.3.3. International Debate on RMB Undervaluation
    • 1.3.4. Impact of Exchange Rate Policy on China's Export-Oriented Development Model
  • 1.4. Chapter summary
• 2. CURRENT SITUATION OF CHINA’S EXPORT TRADE AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE RMB EXCHANGE RATE
• 2.1. Current Situation and Structure of China’s Export Trade
  • 2.1.1. Core Export Commodity Categories and Their Dynamic Changes
  • 2.1.2. Geographical Structure: Major Trading Partners
• 2.2. Trends and Volatility of the RMB Exchange Rate
• 2.3. Preliminary Assessment of the Impact of the RMB Exchange Rate on Exports
  • Table 2.1 – Expected Sensitivity of Selected Export Sectors to RMB Exchange Rate Changes (made by author)
  • 2.3.4. Implications for Subsequent Econometric Modelling
• 3. MECHANISM ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF THE RMB EXCHANGE RATE ON CHINA’S EXPORTS
• 3.1. Price Competitiveness Mechanism
• 3.2. Enterprise Profit Margin Mechanism
  • Table 3.1 – Exchange Rate Movements: Effects on Exporters and Enterprise Responses (made by author)
• 3.3. Imported Input Cost Mechanism
• 3.4. Exchange Rate Risk Expectation Mechanism
• 3.5. External Demand Adjustment Mechanism
• 3.6. Comprehensive Mechanism Framework and Implications for Empirical Analysis
  • Table 3.2 – Exchange Rate Transmission Mechanisms and Expected Effects on Exports (made by author)
• 4. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF RMB EXCHANGE RATE ON CHINA'S EXPORTS
• 4.1. Data Sources, Variable Selection and Empirical Design
  • Table 4.1 – Variable Definition and Expected Relationships (made by author)
• 4.2. Descriptive Statistical Analysis
• 4.3. ADF Unit Root Test
• 4.4. Johansen Cointegration Test
• 4.5. VAR Model Estimation and Stability Test
• 4.6. Impulse Response Analysis
• 4.7. Variance Decomposition
• 4.8. Summary of Empirical Results
• 5. EMPIRICAL CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS
• 5.1. Summary of Main Findings
  • 5.1.1. Exchange Rate Changes Affect Exports through Multiple Channels
  • 5.1.2. China’s Export Structure Has Become More Complex and Less Purely Price-Dependent
  • 5.1.3. The Empirical Results Support a Short-Term Negative Effect of RMB Appreciation on Exports
  • 5.1.4. No Stable Long-Term Cointegration Relationship Is Found
  • 5.1.5. Exchange Rate Explains a Non-negligible Share of Export Fluctuations
  • 5.1.6 Summary of Empirical Findings
• 5.2. Policy Recommendations for the Government
  • 5.2.1. Maintain the Basic Stability of the RMB Exchange Rate at a Reasonable and Balanced Level
  • 5.2.2. Improve Exchange Rate Risk Management Support for Export Enterprises
  • 5.2.3. Promote Export Structure Upgrading and Reduce Dependence on Price Competition
  • 5.2.4. Diversify Export Markets and Strengthen External Demand Resilience
• 5.3. Recommendations for Export Enterprises
  • 5.3.1 Establish a Systematic Exchange Rate Risk Management Mechanism
• 5.4. Research Limitations
• 5.5. Future Research Directions
• 5.6. Overall Conclusion
• CONCLUSION
• BIBLIOGRAPHY