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Оглавление
- Cover
- Contents
- I. INTRODUCTION
- II. RELATED LITERATURE
- III. DATA
- A. Data on Cross-border Banking Flows
- B. Data on Fiscal Shocks
- IV. EMPIRICAL METHODOLOGY
- A. General Framework
- B. Analysis of U.S. Fiscal Shocks
- V. RESULTS
- A. Analysis of Cross-border Spillovers for U.S. Fiscal Shocks
- B. Analysis of Cross-border Fiscal-Financial Spillovers in Small Open Economies
- VI. CONCLUSIONS
- REFERENCES
- TABLES
- Table 1. List of countries in the international panel analysis
- Table 2. Total cross-border claims and liabilities as a share of GDP
- Table 3. Baseline estimation results from a dynamic framework
- Table 4. Summary of exogenous spending shocks in 16 OECD countries: 1990 -2010
- FIGURES
- Figure 1. Total U.S. cross-border bank claims: raw stock vs. exchange rate-adjusted stock
- Figure 2. Exchange rate-adjusted U.S. cross-border bank claims to individual countries
- Figure 3. Time series of exogenous fiscal shocks in the U.S.
- Figure 4. Estimated effect of a U.S. expansionary fiscal policy shock on cross-border bank lending
- Figure 5. Transmission channel of U.S. fiscal shocks
- Figure 6. Estimated effect of a U.S. expansionary fiscal policy shock on cross-border bank lending after controlling for monetary policy shocks
- Figure 7. Forecast variance error decomposition of cross-border bank lending
- Figure 8. Estimated effect of a U.S. expansionary fiscal policy shock (1 percent of GDP) on cross-border bank net lending
- Figure 9. NBER recession dates and the weight on a recession regime
- Figure 10. Estimated effect of a U.S. expansionary fiscal policy shock on cross-border bank lending: expansions vs. recessions
- Figure 11. Estimated effect of a U.S. expansionary fiscal policy shock on cross-border bank lending: expansionary vs. contractionary shocks
- Figure 12. Estimated effect of a U.S. expansionary fiscal policy shock on cross-border bank lending: pegged vs. non-pegged recipients
- Figure 13. Estimated effect of a U.S. expansionary fiscal policy shock on cross-border bank lending: financially open vs. closed recipient countries
- Figure 14. Distribution of fiscal policy shock as a share of GDP in 16 OECD countries from 1990 and 2010
- Figure 15. Estimated effect of expansionary spending shock on cross-border bank lending using 16 OECD countries
- APPENDIX
- Table A1. Data availability on cross-border flows in the BIS International Banking Statistics
- Figure B1. Estimated effect of a U.S. expansionary fiscal policy shock on cross-border bank lending: controlling for other macroeconomic variables
- Figure B.2. Estimated effect of a U.S. expansionary fiscal policy shock on cross-border bank lending: using eight lags instead
- Figure B.3. Estimated effect of a U.S. expansionary fiscal policy shock on cross-border bank lending: using Driscoll-Kraay standard error
- Figure B.4. Estimated effect of a U.S. expansionary fiscal policy shock on cross-border bank lending: controlling for bilateral imports
- Figure B.5. Estimated effect of a U.S. expansionary fiscal policy shock on cross-border bank lending
- Figure B.6. Estimated effect of a U.S. expansionary fiscal policy shock on cross-border bank lending after controlling for monetary policy shocks and VIX shocks
- Figure B.7. Estimated effect of a U.S. expansionary fiscal policy shock on cross-border bank borrowing
- Figure B.8. Estimated effect of a U.S. expansionary fiscal policy shock on cross-border bank lending: advanced vs. emerging market recipient countries
- Figure B.9. Estimated effect of a U.S. expansionary spending shock on cross-border bank lending using 16 OECD countries: alternative fixed effects
- Figure B.10. Estimated effect of expansionary fiscal policy shock on cross-border bank lending using 16 OECD countries: expansions vs. recessions
- Figure B.11. Estimated effect of expansionary fiscal policy shock on cross-border bank lending using 16 OECD countries: expansionary vs. contractionary shocks
- Figure B.12. Estimated effect of expansionary fiscal policy shock on cross-border bank lending using 16 OECD countries: pegged vs. non-pegged
- Figure B.12. Estimated effect of expansionary fiscal policy shock on cross-border bank lending using 16 OECD countries: open vs. closed recipient countries
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