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Аннотация
This book explores structural changes in India's agrifood systems during the next ten to twenty years. The dynamics in the agrifood sector is explored in the context of the overall economy, taking into account agricultural and trade policies and their impacts on national and global markets.
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Оглавление
- International Trade and Food Security: The Future of Indian Agriculture
- Copyright
- Contents
- Contributors
- Foreword
- Preface
- Acronyms
- 1: Introduction
- The Organization of the Book
- 2: Transformation of Indian Agriculture Following Economic Liberalization
- Indian Economic and Agricultural Performance
- Evolution of Agricultural Trade
- Structure of global agricultural trade
- India–European Union trade in agricultural commodities
- Challenges and Opportunities Thus Far
- Boosting investments and rationalizing subsidies
- Agricultural credit – extending the outreach of formal credit
- Irrigation – expanding infrastructure and ensuring better management of water resources
- Emerging private sector participation
- Diversifying consumption patterns – inducing supply response
- Key agricultural policies and initiatives – implications for growth and food security
- Addressing productivity issues
- Improving economic access to food through improved livelihood options
- Improving economic access to food through support price and procurement policies
- Promoting agricultural diversification
- Agricultural trade policies
- The Way Forward
- Notes
- References
- 3: Food Consumption Pattern and Nutritional Security among Rural Households in India: Impact of Cross-cutting Rural Employment Policies
- Introduction
- Components of MGNREGA
- Categorization of Rural Households by Region, Farm size and Income Level
- Rural Households’ Linkage with MGNREGA
- Dynamics of MGNREGA Job Card Holders
- Job card holding
- Employment seeking
- MGNREGA beneficiaries
- Duration of employment
- State-wise economic dynamics of rural households
- Dietary pattern and nutritional status
- Non-food expenditure pattern
- Conclusions
- Note
- References
- 4: Food Demand and Supply Projections to 2030: India
- Introduction
- Categorization of Households
- Food Demand Projections
- Analytical Approach
- Food demand at home
- Home–away food demand projections
- Food demand projections outside home
- Total household food demand
- Population projections
- Income growth
- Indirect demand for food
- Different Demand Scenarios
- Food basket in India: the changing trends
- Food demand elasticity
- Dietary Pattern Projections
- Food Demand Projections for Human Consumption
- Indirect Demand Projections for Food Grains
- Seed
- Feed
- Industrial use
- Wastages
- Total Indirect Demand Projections
- Demand Projections for Food Grains
- Demand Projections for High-value Commodities
- Edible oils
- Sugar
- Vegetables
- Fruits
- Milk
- Fish
- Meat
- Poultry meat
- Eggs
- Supply Projections
- Domestic supply projections
- Supply growth
- Supply response elasticities
- Domestic supply growth
- Domestic supply projections for commodities
- Wheat
- Coarse cereals
- Total cereals
- Pulses
- Food grains
- Edible oils
- Sugar
- High-value commodities
- Vegetables
- Fruits
- Milk
- Meat
- Eggs
- Fish
- Conclusions
- Note
- References
- Tables for Appendices
- 5: Indian Economic Growth and Trade Agreements: What Matters for India and for Global Markets?
- Introduction
- Model
- The GTAP core and data
- MAGNET model and data adjustments
- Dynamic international capital flows and investments
- Improved tariff data and incorporation of tariff shocks
- Scenarios
- The reference scenario: the baseline
- Growth scenarios for India
- Free trade scenarios: a multilateral WTO agreement and a bilateral free trade agreement with the EU
- Description of tariff barriers
- A Free Trade Agreement between India and the EU
- A WTO agreement
- Results and Discussion
- The baseline scenario: what drives Indian growth and how does it affect the economy?
- The implications of Indian growth
- The implications of multilateral and bilateral Free Trade Agreements for India and the rest of the world
- Conclusions
- Notes
- References
- 6: India: Economic Growth and Income Distribution in Rural and Urban Areas
- Introduction
- Growth, Poverty and Inequality: A Review
- Sectors Driving Economic Growth
- Methodology and Approach: Computable General Equilibrium Model
- Adjustments made in the existing model
- Agricultural sectors
- Factor market disaggregation
- Household classification
- Numeraire
- Dynamics of model
- Labour supply growth
- Government consumption
- Investment
- International trade account
- Government transfers to households
- Social accounting matrix
- Adjustments made in the existing model
- Different GDP Growth Scenarios
- Sectoral changes
- Rural and urban income distribution
- Wages
- Conclusions
- Acknowledgement
- Note
- References
- Appendix
- 7: Food Safety Standards for Domestic and International Markets: The Case of Dairy
- Introduction
- Importance of Quality Standards in the Indian Domestic Market
- The Importance of Quality Standards in Trade
- Public versus Private Standards
- Standards in the Indian Dairy Sector
- The dairy sector in India
- Domestic food safety standards in Indian dairy
- Public standards
- Private standards
- Food safety standards in international trade
- Food standards for dairy exports by India
- Food safety practices in dairy production: evidence from Andhra Pradesh
- Data collection and categorization of households based on livestock herd size
- Descriptive statistics
- Food safety practices
- Conclusions
- Notes
- References
- 8: India’s Poultry Sector: Trade Prospects
- Introduction
- World Poultry Industry – A Profile
- Global production trends
- Leading producers of chicken meat
- International trade scenario in poultry
- Poultry Industry in India
- Structure
- Trends in poultry production in India
- Relative importance of poultry in agriculture
- India’s Trade in Poultry
- Price Competitiveness of India’s Poultry Products
- Liberalization of India’s Imports
- Liberalization of India’s tariffs
- Liberalization of maize imports
- Conclusions
- Notes
- References
- 9: Employment Guarantee Programme and Income Distribution
- Introduction
- An Overview of Past Studies
- Some Statistics
- Modelling Aspects
- Equation for labour employment under MGNREGS
- Equation for labour demand under MGNREGS
- Impact of MGNREGS
- Impact on GDP
- Impact on household income
- Impact on agricultural labour supply
- Conclusions
- Acknowledgement
- Notes
- References
- 10: India’s Price Support Policies and Global Food Prices
- Introduction
- Global and Regional Food Prices of Rice and Wheat
- Impact of India’s Agricultural Price Policies on Domestic Rice and Wheat Prices
- Impact of Increasing MSPs on Rising Food-grain Stocks
- A Baseline Trend to 2030
- Discussion and Conclusions
- Notes
- References
- 11: Biofuel Commitments in India and International Trade
- Introduction
- Modelling of Biofuel Policies
- Introducing New Sectors in MAGNET Model
- Substitution in Production
- Modelling Biofuel Targets
- Scenarios
- Biofuel Production and Feedstock Demand
- Land Use and Intensification
- Animal Feed
- Production and Welfare
- Food Consumption
- Trade Balance
- Impact on Poverty
- Conclusions
- References
- 12: Input Subsidy versus Farm Technology – Which is More Important for Agricultural Development?
- Introduction
- Analytical Approach
- Producer core system
- Acreage response model
- TFP response model
- Supply growth model
- Income model
- Consumer core system
- The unified model
- Estimates of Producer Core System
- Input demand elasticity
- Yield response elasticities
- Acreage response elasticities
- TFP elasticities
- Supply elasticities
- Crop income elasticities
- Consumer demand elasticities
- Aggregate Demand for Rice and Wheat
- Simulated Results of Unified Model
- Sources of input demand
- Sources of commodity price
- Sources of supply, demand and farm income
- Fertilizer Subsidy and Crop Price Stabilization
- Conclusions
- Notes
- References
- Appendix
- 13: High-value Production and Poverty: The Case of Dairy in India
- Introduction
- Data Collection and Sampling
- Descriptive Statistics
- Dynamics in Dairy Production and Demand
- Dairy Production and Income
- Conclusions
- Notes
- References
- 14: Changing Structure of Retail in India: Looking Beyond Price Competition
- Introduction
- Survey Design and Data Collection
- Data and Descriptive Statistics
- Profile of customers in the sample
- Choice between Modern and Traditional Retail in Shopping: The Role of Non-price Attributes
- Purchase of niche and imported products
- Choice between imported and domestic products
- Econometric Analysis of Customers’ Choice of Imports
- Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
- Notes
- References
- 15: Conclusions and Way Forward
- Introduction
- Evolution of Agricultural and Trade Policies
- Demand–supply Projections for Food Commodities
- Economic Growth, Trade and their Implications on Poverty
- Trade and implications on poverty
- Implications of Social Programmes and Price Policies
- Impact of MGNREGA on food consumption
- Long-term impact of MGNREGA
- India’s price support policies
- Input subsidies versus farm technology
- Biofuel commitments in India and internationaltrade
- Emergence of Livestock Sector
- Dairy sector and its impact on poverty and trade
- Food Safety and Standards
- Poultry sector of India and its trade potential
- Rise of Modern Retail Chains
- The Way Forward
- References
- Index
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