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The given work is devoted to the development of a strategy for enhancing bilateral trade in the context of sanctions pressure and changes in the global economic environment. The research set the following goals: 1. Analyze the dynamics of foreign trade relations between Iran and Russia (2001–2024). 2. Study the impact of macroeconomic, political, and socio-cultural factors on trade. 3. Develop a regression model to assess the influence of GDP, exchange rate, and sanctions on export volumes. 4. Conduct qualitative analysis through interviews with foreign trade experts. 5. Develop a conceptual model of strategic interaction. 6. Propose an investment project for a bilateral e-commerce platform with forecasts up to 2029. 7. Justify recommendations for selecting product niches and improving the competitiveness of Iranian goods. The research analyzed macroeconomic, political, and socio-cultural factors affecting trade relations. The dynamics of foreign trade turnover from 2001 to 2024, export structure, development of e-commerce, and the role of information technologies in product promotion were studied. Quantitative and qualitative research methods were used. As a result, a conceptual model of strategic interaction was developed, including proposals for creating an integrated information system, improving logistics, optimizing customs procedures, and strengthening marketing efforts. Particular attention was given to the investment project for establishing a bilateral e-commerce trading platform. In the course of the work, Python and Excel software were used for data analysis and financial modeling, as well as MAXQDA software for processing qualitative data.

Данная работа посвящена разработке стратегии развития двусторонней торговли в условиях санкционного давления и изменений мировой экономической среды. Задачи, которые решались в ходе исследования: 1.Проанализировать динамику внешнеторговых отношений между Ираном и Россией (2001–2024 гг.). 2. Исследовать влияние макроэкономических, политических и социокультурных факторов на торговлю. 3. Построить регрессионную модель для оценки влияния ВВП, валютного курса и санкций на объем экспорта. 4. Провести качественный анализ посредством интервью с экспертами ВЭД. 5. Разработать концептуальную модель стратегического взаимодействия. 6. Предложить инвестиционный проект двусторонней электронной торговой платформы с прогнозом до 2029 г. 7. Обосновать рекомендации по выбору продуктовых ниш и повышению конкурентоспособности иранских товаров. Для исследования использовались количественные и качественные методы. В результате исследования была разработана концептуальная модель стратегического взаимодействия, предполагающая создание интегрированной информационной системы, улучшение логистики, оптимизацию таможенных процедур и усиление маркетинговых усилий. Особое внимание уделено инвестиционному проекту создания двусторонней электронной торговой платформы. В ходе работы применялись программное обеспечение Python и Excel для анализа данных и финансового моделирования, ПО MAXQDA для обработки качественных данных.

• 1. Theoretical Foundations and Literature Review
  • 1.1. Introduction
  • 1.2. Definition of technical terms and terminology
    • 1.2.1. Macro environment
    • 1.2.2. Strategy
  • 1.3. The Role of Political Factors in Iran-Russia Trade Relations
    • 1.3.1. Russia's International Relations
  • 1.4. The role of economic factors in Iran-Russia trade relations
    • 1.4.1. Trade relations between Iran and Russia
  • 1.5. The role of socio-cultural factors in Iran-Russia trade relations
    • 1.5.1. Social Media in Russia
    • 1.5.2. Online Shopping in Russia
    • 1.5.3. E-commerce in Russia
    • 1.5.4. Iran's Export Pattern to Russia
  • 1.6. Iran-Russia Trade Trends
• 2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
  • 2.1. Quantitative Analysis
    • 2.1.1. Regression Analysis Methodology
    • 2.1.2. Methodology of Monte Carlo Simulation Model
  • 2.2. Qualitative Data analysis
• 3. RESULTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
  • 3.1. Conceptual Model
  • 3.2. Qualitative Research
    • 3.2.1. Statistical population and sample of the qualitative section
    • 3.2.2. Research Data Collection Method
    • 3.2.3. Data Analysis
    • 3.2.4. Important factors in strategic decisions of Iran-Russia trade relations
  • 3.3. Quantitative Analysis
    • 3.3.1. Regression Analysis Model
      • Table 4 - Regression Output and Summary Statistics (compiled by the author)
      • Table 5 - Model Summary (compiled by the author)
    • 3.3.2. Monte Carlo Simulation
  • 3.4. Iran's dominant trade with Russia based on statistical data
  • 3.5. Opportunities and Challenges of Iran's Trade with Russia
  • 3.6. Feasibility study for Investment Project : Launch Bilateral Iran–Russia E-Commerce Platform
    • 3.6.1. Marketing Plan
      • Table 6 – Summary form of project SWOT analysis results (compiled by the author)
    • 3.6.2. Production plan
      • Table 7 – Labor Resources (compiled by the author)
    • 3.6.3. Sales Plan
      • Table 8 – Sales Plan (compiled by the author)
    • 3.6.4. Organization plan
    • 3.6.5. Сapital investments value
    • 3.6.6. Forecast of investment project cash flows
    • 3.6.7. Identification (justification) of the discount rate
      • Table 13 - Possible risks and their estimation intervals for applying the cumulative method to determining the discount rate (compiled by the author)
    • 3.6.8. Studying the feasibility of the Cross border E-platform investment project
      • Table 14 - Proposed form for calculating the NPV of our project (compiled by the author)
      • Table 15 - Proposed form for calculating PI of the investment project (compiled by the author)
      • Table 16 – NPV (compiled by the author)
    • 3.6.9. Risk evaluation of the investment project
      • Table 17 - risk project parameter (compiled by the author)
      • Table 18 – Risk Evaluation (compiled by the author)
      • Figure 17 - Sensitivity analysis of NPV (Spider graph) (compiled by the author)
      • Table 19 - Proposed form for reflecting information about investment project development scenarios (compiled by the author)
      • Table 20 – Primary information of the scenario analysis by USD (compiled by the author)
    • 3.6.10. Results
  • 3.7. Research Limitations
• CONCLUSION
• BIBLIOGRAPHY