Details

This work is devoted to the analysis of the European Unions sanctions regime against the Russian Federation, with a focus on its effects on global trade in key commodities. In the process of the research, the following tasks were completed: The study of the historical evolution of economic sanctions and their relevance to commodity markets. 1. The analysis of three historical case studies (Iran, Cuba, South Africa) and their long-term effects on oil, agriculture, and minerals. 2. The examination of evasion strategies adopted by sanctioned states. 3. A detailed analysis of EU–Russia trade flows in oil, gas, fertilizers, metals, grains, and nuclear materials (2020–2024), using Eurostat COMEXT data. 4. The assessment of EU sanction measures by commodity group, and their legal and political implications. 5. The evaluation of trade reallocation strategies by Russia using OEC visualizations. 6. The development of policy recommendations, supported by expert interviews. The result of the work is a structured evaluation of sanctions’ real-world effects on commodity markets, showing how both the EU and Russia adapted. Appendices include data methodology (Appendix A) and product classification by HS codes (Appendix B).

Данная работа посвящена анализу санкционного режима Европейского союза в отношении Российской Федерации с акцентом на последствия для мировой торговли стратегическими товарами. В ходе исследования были решены следующие задачи: 1. Изучение исторической эволюции экономических санкций и их значимости для товарных рынков. 2. Анализ трёх исторических кейсов (Иран, Куба, ЮАР) и их долгосрочного влияния на нефть, сельское хозяйство и минеральные ресурсы. 3.Исследование стратегий обхода санкций, применяемых целевыми государствами. 4. Детализированный анализ товарооборота между ЕС и Россией в 2020–2024 гг. по шести товарным группам: нефть, газ, удобрения, металлы, зерно, ядерные материалы (на основе данных EurostatCOMEXT). 5. Оценка санкционных мер ЕС по каждой товарной группе, их правовая и политическая основа. 6.Анализ реакций и перенаправления экспорта со стороны России с использованием визуализаций из OEC. 7. Формулировка политических рекомендаций, основанных на эмпирических данных и интервью с экспертом Массимо Грифоне (CauvinMetals). Результатом работы является структурированная оценка реального воздействия санкций на мировые товарные потоки, показывающая адаптационные механизмы ЕС и России. Приложения включают описание методологии анализа данных (Приложение A) и классификацию товаров по кодам ТН ВЭД (Приложение B).

• INTRODUCTION
• 1. SANCTIONS AND COMMODITIES - CONCEPTS AND HISTORICAL LESSONS
  • 1.1. Literature Review
  • 1.1.1. Sanctions through the XX Century
  • 1.1.2. The Russian Case
  • 1.2. Historical Sanctions & Commodity Markets
  • 1.2.1.1. Key Sanctions Timeline
  • 1.2.1.2. Effects on Oil Export Volumes and Prices
  • 1.2.1.3. Domestic Economic Consequences (GDP, Inflation, Currency)
  • 1.2.1.4. Long-Term Structural Shifts (Trade Partners and Refining Capacity)
  • 1.2.2. Cuba (1962–Present) – U.S. Embargo on Agriculture and Food Imports
  • 1.2.2.1. Embargo Timeline and Phases
  • 1.2.2.2. Changes in Food Import Patterns
  • 1.2.2.3. Impact on Domestic Agriculture and Food Security
  • 1.2.2.4. Reliance on Third Countries and Trade Policy Implications
  • 1.2.3. South Africa (1960s–1994) – Anti-Apartheid Sanctions on Minerals
  • 1.2.3.1. Sanctions Timeline and Measures
  • 1.2.3.2. Effects on Gold and Diamond Trade Flows
  • 1.2.3.3. Domestic Impacts on the Mining Sector and Economy
  • 1.2.3.4. Long-Term Changes Post-Sanctions
  • 1.3. General Strategies to bypass Sanctions
  • 1.3.1. Third-Country Trade Rerouting
  • 1.3.2. Smuggling and Black Markets
  • 1.3.3. Domestic Substitution
  • 1.3.4. Reflagging of Ships and Covert Logistics
  • 1.3.5. Use of Alternative Currencies and Financial Systems
  • 1.3.6. Legal Loopholes and Partial Enforcement
• 2. THE EU-RUSSIA CASE - TRADE, SANCTIONS, AND COMMODITY TURBULENCE
  • 2.1. EU-Russia Commodity Trade 2020-2024
  • 2.1.1 Comparative Overview
  • 2.1.1.1 Fertilizers
    • 2.1.1.2. Metals
  • 2.1.1.3. Nuclear Materials
  • 2.1.2. Oil, Gas, and Grains across Countries
  • 2.1.2.1. Germany’s Oil Imports from Russia
  • 2.1.2.2. France’s Gas Imports from Russia
  • 2.1.2.3. Italy’s Grains Imports from Russia
  • 2.1.3. A Short Focus into intra-EU Gas Trade
  • 2.2. EU Sanctions on Russia: Legal and Economic Scope
  • 2.2.1. Fertilizers
  • 2.2.2. Metals
  • 2.2.3. Nuclear Materials
  • 2.2.4. Oil
  • 2.2.5. Grains
    • 2.2.6 Gas
  • 2.3 Commodity Impact: Price Shocks, Supply Chain Disruptions, and Russia’s Workarounds
    • 2.3.1 Fertilizers
    • 2.3.2 Metals
    • 2.3.3 Nuclear Materials
    • 2.3.4 Oil
    • 2.3.5 Grains
    • 2.3.6 Gas
• 3. POLICY LESSONS AND STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS
  • 3.1 Sanction’s Effectiveness – What Have They Really Achieved?
    • 3.1.1 For the EU
      • 3.1.1.1 Trade Rerouting and Global Substitution
      • 3.1.1.2 Emergence of the Shadow Fleet and Enforcement Loopholes
      • 3.1.1.3 The CBAM–Sanctions Contradiction
      • 3.1.1.4 Fertilizer and Nuclear Exemptions: Budget Lifelines for Moscow
      • 3.1.1.5 Internal EU Fractures and “Sanction Fatigue”
    • 3.1.2 For the Russian Federation
      • 3.1.2.1 Macroeconomic Shock and Stabilization Response
      • 3.1.2.2 Fiscal Strain and Revenue Adaptation
      • 3.1.2.3 Impact on the Population and Society
      • 3.1.2.4 Trade Reorientation and New Dependencies
      • 3.1.2.5 Summary: Short-Term Resilience, Long-Term Challenges
  • 3.2 EU Policy - Securing Long-Term Commodity Supply
    • 3.2.1 From Crisis to Strategy: Reducing Strategic Dependence
    • 3.2.2 Aligning External Sanctions with Internal Climate and Industrial Goals
    • 3.2.3 A Phased and Transparent Approach to Sanctions Enforcement
    • 3.2.4 Toward Unity: Internal Cohesion and Long-Term Governance
  • 3.3 Russian Strategy: Adapting to Sanctions in a Multipolar World
    • 3.3.1 Post-War Stabilization: Managing Fiscal Pressure and Monetary Rigidity
    • 3.3.2 Commodities Policy: Revenue, Leverage, and Strategic Realignment
    • 3.3.3 Technological Survival: Focusing on Depth, Not Breadth
    • 3.3.4 Beyond Bilateralism: Managing China and Building a Multivector Model
• CONCLUSION
• REFERENCES
• APPENDIX A
• APPENDIX B